One stat says Man City’s Real Madrid comeback hope isn’t dead

Between 2018 and 2024, Manchester City reached, at least, the Champions League quarter-finals each season. Now, after falling in the knockout round play-offs 12 months ago, they’re on the brink of another early exit. It was Real Madrid who curtailed the Sky Blues’ continental campaign back then, with a repeat seemingly on the cards, although the job is not done yet.

On Wednesday night, Pep Guardiola’s team were demolished 3-0 by Álvaro Arbeloa’s team at the Bernabéu. Fede Valverde scored an astonishing first half hat-trick, while the scoreline could have been worse, given that Vinícius Júnior saw a spot-kick saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma. The match stats do not make for great reading for Man City fans:

Real Madrid vs Manchester City match stats

Note: All statistics courtesy of SofaScore.

Before a ball was kicked at the Bernabéu, Man City were given a 65% of progressing to the quarter-finals, a number that has drastically plummeted to just 9%, according to Football Rankings. Thus, the Citizens require a famous remontada at the Etihad on Tuesday, but do they have an history in this regard?

Manchester City European ties when losing the first leg

Note: *Won after a replay. **Won on penalties. ***Lost on away goals.

Wednesday night was the 13th time Manchester City have lost the first leg of a two-legged European tie. Only once before have they done so by a three-goal margin, this against Liverpool eight years ago, battered 3-0 at Anfield, before also losing 2-1 at home a week later.

Overall, across the previous 12 occasions, they’ve only managed to fight back and prevail on three occasions. The Sky Blues beat Midtjylland on penalties in 2008 and Górnik Zabrze after a replay at Idrætsparken in Copenhagen in 1971, both legs of the latter ending 2-0 of that tie. Most famously, after losing 1-0 at Glückauf-Kampfbahn a year earlier, Joe Mercer’s team demolished Schalke 5-1 at Maine Road, en route to Cup Winners’ Cup glory 56 years ago.

Well, if Guardiola’s team are to remain on track for more European glory this season, they require an even more extraordinary comeback next Tuesday. In their entire history, Real Madrid have only ever lost 75 matches by four or more goals, of which only seven have come in UEFA competition.

Real Madrid’s record European defeats

• AC Milan 5-0 Real Madrid. European Cup semi-final second leg 1989.

• Kaiserslautern 5-0 Real Madrid. UEFA Cup quarter-final second leg 1982.

• Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-1 Real Madrid. UEFA Cup last 16 first leg 1985.

• Hamburg 5-1 Real Madrid. European Cup semi-final second leg 1980.

• Benfica 5-1 Real Madrid. European Cup quarter-final first leg 1965.

• Manchester City 4-0 Real Madrid. Champions League semi-final second leg 2023.

• Liverpool 4-0 Real Madrid. Champions League last 16 second leg 2009.

The most-recent of these Real Madrid European hammerings did come at the Etihad. During Man City’s treble-winning season, after a 1-1 draw at the Bernabéu, they steamrollered los Merengues, with goals from Bernardo Silva, Manuel Akanji and Julián Álvarez sending them to İstanbul. Well, it’ll require a similar flawless performance next week to keep alive their hopes of being in Budapest.