From beating Leeds to losing leads, Manchester City first displayed their title credentials and then damaged them in the space of a few days. City have spent most of the season playing catch-up and yet, if they do not regain the title, it may be because of what happened when they were ahead: in games, not the standings. Nottingham Forest’s twin equalisers meant City have now dropped 13 points from games in which they led: unlucky for Pep Guardiola, perhaps.
The number perhaps reflects the way that this is not the City side of old, the team of permanent possession, who could close out games by controlling them. Guardiola’s more transitional side, with their lower share of the ball, their lesser pass completion rate, may be less suited to shutting a match down and seeing it out.
The six games where they lost leads could be split into three pairs: two of them to Brighton, who have cost City five points with their comebacks; two in injury time, when Arsenal and Chelsea fought back; two where they have either gone 2-0 up or ahead twice against relegation-threatened opponents and been held by Tottenham and now Forest.
In the final reckoning, the most significant goal of the season may have come both early and late: Gabriel Martinelli’s 93rd-minute equaliser for Arsenal against City. It came in a match where City had been holding on, limited to 32 percent of possession. They almost pulled off a rearguard action. They did not put away a Chelsea side under the caretaker Calum McFarlane. Then, three days later, they were pegged back by Brighton.
It is a rather inconvenient fact that McFarlane’s only point came against City, as did Thomas Frank’s last in charge of Spurs and Vitor Pereira’s first with Forest. Collectively, it looks like a lack of ruthlessness; more fearsome City sides would have sensed frailty in the opposition ranks. And yet, even in their heyday, it was never as simple as saying City would automatically win. Now it feels still harder.
“That’s why we love the game so much, because it’s unpredictable, and I would say that it’s for us to control better these moments,” said the captain Bernardo Silva. “It’s on us that we didn’t win, that we conceded the goal in the last minute against Chelsea, for example, at home, that we didn’t win against Brighton at home, that we were winning 2-0 against Tottenham away and we let them come back into that game. Today again twice we were leading and we let them come back.”
There are other factors; the Premier League’s strength in depth among them. The stragglers have players capable of individual brilliance. Dominic Solanke scored a scorpion kick against City. Morgan Gibbs-White struck with a wonderful backheel. “An unbelievable goal from Morgan,” added Silva. “The way he finishes, it’s quite surprising.”
That Gibbs-White and Forest’s other scorer Elliot Anderson have both been City targets underlined the division’s depths of talent. City have spent £430m in the last three transfer windows and made several excellent signings, but they do not have a monopoly on quality.
If City were differentiated in part by the passing, in the past, winning became self-perpetuating. City had a core of seasoned champions. Their standards had slipped after the 2023 treble, but they still excelled at winning games the following season. Now that side has been broken up.
Only four of those who started at Elland Road have won the Premier League title, even if, illogically, six did when they dropped points against Forest. “We have more players that have been in this position,” added Silva. “In terms of the guys that have been here for a long time, Rodri, Ruben [Dias], even Erling [Haaland], some guys that were on the bench like [John] Stones and [Nathan] Ake. [Gianluigi] Donnarumma was not here, but he knows what it is to be in this position. And that definitely helps us to have this experience, to play these games with a different mindset.”
Experience can help, and it is probably just a coincidence that five of the games in which leads were lost were actually matches that Rodri started. City were without the reassuring presence of Dias for three. The calm Stones only began one. Donnarumma had not even joined when they lost at Brighton in August. Without the Italian’s excellence, more leads would probably have been lost: his 98th-minute save from Alexis Mac Allister at Anfield was sensational and may yet prove pivotal.
It illustrated that the margins have narrowed since the days when City won six league titles with an average if 93 points. Now they are on course for 79, though that would be higher but for those dropped points.
“Football is always unpredictable, and there’s always a chance for a new team to win,” reflected Silva. “There’s always a chance for young guys to show their personality, their character, and it’s going be fun until the end of the season.”
But if City’s campaign ends in second, they could rue the points that got away from them.