Will we look back at this as a decisive weekend in the Premier League title race? In Saturday’s early kick off, Arsenal put in a dismal display as they were beaten 2-1 by Bournemouth before, the following day, Manchester City swatted Chelsea aside, thanks to second half goals from Nico O’Reilly, Marc Guéhi and then Jérémy Doku at Stamford Bridge. While the Gunners appear to be crumbling under the pressure, the Citizens are thriving as usual, continuing their excellent run-in results.
As noted by Opta, when playing their final ten games of a season, Manchester City have lost just one of their previous 43 outings, winning 32 of them. Well, with seven fixtures remaining, starting with the huge clash against the leaders at the Etihad next Sunday, every game feels must win. This statistic though supports the zeitgeist that Pep Guardiola’s team really turn it on towards the end of the campaign, so lets assess this hypothesis.
Manchester City’s final 10 game PL results under Pep Guardiola
|
Season |
Wins |
Draws |
Loses |
Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2024/25 |
7 |
3 |
Zero |
24 |
|
2023/24 |
9 |
1 |
Zero |
28 |
|
2022/23 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
25 |
|
2021/22 |
7 |
3 |
Zero |
24 |
|
2020/21 |
7 |
Zero |
3 |
21 |
|
2019/20 |
8 |
Zero |
2 |
24 |
|
2018/19 |
10 |
Zero |
Zero |
30 |
|
2017/18 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
25 |
|
2016/17 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
21 |
Under Guardiola, in the midst of a title race, the Sky Blues consistently make a sprint for the finish. This was never more so the case than in 2018/19, when Man City won each of their final 14 fixtures to pip Liverpool to the title by one point, finishing on 98. In fact, their most-recent Premier League defeat during the run-in with the title genuinely on the line came against Liverpool at Anfield all the way back in April 2014 under Manuel Pellegrini. It mattered not. Steven Gerrard slipped when confronted by an onrushing Demba Ba, and the rest is history.
In complete contrast, Arsenal’s season regularly falls apart in April. It is the month of the year in which the Gunners boast the lowest win percentage under Arteta, with a staggering 17% of his loses as boss coming during this month. Man City meantime seemingly embrace and even relish the pressure, actually regularly improving at this stage of the campaign.
Manchester City points-per-game: first 28 games vs final 10 games
|
Season |
PPG first 28 games |
PPG final 10 games |
|---|---|---|
|
2024/25 |
1.68 |
2.4 |
|
2023/24 |
2.25 |
2.8 |
|
2022/23 |
2.29 |
2.5 |
|
2021/22 |
2.46 |
2.4 |
|
2020/21 |
2.32 |
2.1 |
|
2019/20 |
2.04 |
2.4 |
|
2018/19 |
2.43 |
3 |
|
2017/18 |
2.68 |
2.5 |
|
2016/17 |
2.04 |
2.1 |
In five of Manchester City’s last seven seasons, they have accumulated a higher points-per-game ratio during the final ten fixtures of the campaign when compared to the preceding 28. This data is even somewhat skewed by the fact they’ve often had the title wrapped up with a few games to spare, concluding 2022/23 by drawing with Brighton and losing at Brentford, as focus shifted to the FA Cup and Champions League Finals.
All in all, history very much suggests that the Citizens are going to pick up a seventh Premier League title under Guardiola and a ninth of the Abu Dhabi-era, having ended their 44 year wait to be champions in 2012. Sunday’s clash with Arsenal and the six fixtures that will follow it all feel must win, but you would not put it past them.